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As costs drop, researchers predict more
use of this alternative in the United States as well as in developing nations.
Washington--Fueled by falling costs of photovoltaic cells, world solar
markets are growing 10 times faster than the oil industry, the World Watch Institute
reported Thursday, July 16th. The cost of solar cells, closely related to silicon
semiconductor chips found in computers, has fallen by 80 percent since 1980,
the environmental group reported. This is making electricity affordable to the
more than 2 billion people worldwide not connected to power lines, as evidenced
by a 40 percent rise in sales last year.
"It is the largest increase in a decade," said Christopher Flavin, a World
Watch senior researcher, who co-wrote the report with researcher Molly O'Meara.
While solar power still makes up a tiny fraction of all power generated, it
"has the potential to move from the margins of the global energy market place
right into the mainstream."
Solar power is not yet economically competitive in the United States, where
it still costs two to five times more than electricity generated by nuclear
or fossil fuels. But as technology matures in the next decade with the use of
technology such as "thin film" photovoltaic material, scientists believe costs
could dip as much as 75 percent. In much of the Sun Belt, where air conditioning
drives up power demand, this price would make solar power competitive with electricity
from fossil fuels, World Watch said.
Still, integrating solar cells into roofing tiles and even window glass--which
allows homes and buildings to generate some of their own power and even sell
electricity back to the utility--is beginning to be used in a few pioneering
communities such as Sacramento, California, where the local utility company
has partly subsidized rooftop solar systems for 420 homeowners. World Watch
found that much of the recent growth in solar sales was spurred by rooftop solar
programs, spotlighted by President Clinton's goal of installing solar energy
systems on the roofs of 1 million U.S. buildings by 2010. Japan is the world
leader so far, with 9,400 solar home systems installed in 1997.
Scott Sklar, Executive Director of Solar Energy Industries Association , said
it is uncertain whether Congress will provide sufficient funds to achieve the
"million roofs" goal. But solar power can't become competitive in the United
States until people can choose the kind of electricity they want, he said. "Once
we deregulate our electricity market, one of 10 homes will use solar power."
The United States is the No. 1 producer of solar cells, primarily for the export
market. But without market reforms to encourage solar power at home, Flavin
said, "the current strong U.S. leadership could be lost, because the industry
is likely to migrate where markets are developing".
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