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In December 1997, representatives of more than 160 nations
assembled in Kyoto, Japan, to sign an historic protocol to the 1992 Framework
Convention on Climate Change. Over the last 10 millennia, the relative stability
of the climate has nurtured the evolution of human society and the natural environment.
Today, however, human activities are rapidly disrupting this stability, placing
both in peril.
Global emissions of carbon--which in the atmosphere form carbon dioxide (CO2),
the most important greenhouse gas released by human activities--from the burning
of fossil fuels reached a record 6.2 billion tons in 1996, having increased
nearly fourfold since 1950. The postwar emissions binge is a planetary experiment
unlike anything we have ever tried, overwhelming the natural cycling of carbon
by oceans and forests and bringing the atmospheric CO2 concentration to 29 percent
above its pre-industrial level, higher than at any time in the last 160,000
years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which in 1995 confirmed
a "discernible human influence on global climate," estimates that a doubling
of CO2 concentrations--likely to occur late next century if we stay on the current
path--will increase global temperature by 1-3..5 degrees Celsius.
This rate of change, the fastest in the last 10,000 years, poses substantial
risks to the natural world and human society in coming decades. While the complexity
of the Earth's climate system makes it impossible to know precisely the effects
of rapid changes in the composition of the atmosphere, scientists around the
world have concluded that flooded cities, diminished food production, and increased
storm damage all seem likely, and could well produce catastrophic economic consequences.
Luckily, the premium for climate protection has dropped dramatically during
the 1990's as many promising new technologies have moved quietly but decisively
from experimental curiosity to commercial reality. These new inventions allow
rapid improvement in the efficiency of energy use and can economically turn
sunlight, wind and plant matter into electricity and other useful forms of energy.
Sweeping changes in the world's energy system will unfold rapidly enough only
if government policies--many of which support the status quo and retard the
development of alternatives--are transformed. Efforts to cut fuel subsides,
improve energy efficiency standards, and support the accelerated use of renewable
energy are among the initiatives that have proved effective in reducing emissions.
Indeed, if all nations had by now adopted the most effective policies already
taken up piecemeal by one or more countries, global greenhouse gas emissions
might now be headed down.
Industrial countries are responsible for 76 percent of the world's cumulative
carbon emissions since 1950. Signatories to the 1992 climate change treaty agreed
that these countries should take the lead by voluntarily holding emissions to
1990 levels by the year 2000. But this goal has disappeared in the cloud of
greenhouse gas belching from automobiles and smokestacks of industrial countries.
Farthest off track among emitters are the United States, Australia and Japan,
whose carbon emissions in 1996 were 8.8, 9.6, and 12.5 percent above 1990 levels.
A chief culprit in recent emissions growth is the transportation sector, which
is the fastest growing source during the past two decades. Much of this is due
to the automobile fleet, which has surged from 50 million to 500 million since
1950 and is projected to double over the next quarter century as millions of
people in developing countries purchase cars for the first time. In industrial
countries, meanwhile, cars are being sold in larger sizes and being driven greater
distances with each passing year. At the same time, the popularity of larger
homes with ever more electrical appliances is also increasing energy use and
carbon emissions. These trends, supported by low fuel prices, have overwhelmed
the energy efficiency improvements of the last decade.
The record in industrial countries is not universally bleak, however. The collapse
of energy-intensive industries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union
lowered Russia's carbon emissions 33 percent between 1990 and 1996. Emissions
have dropped 7.6 percent in Germany as a result of energy policy reforms and
the forced shutdown of inefficient , coal-based industries and power plants
in its new eastern states. The United Kingdom and France also kept their carbon
emissions below their 1990 levels through 1996.
The fastest growth in greenhouse gas emissions in recent years has been in
the developing world, where industrialization is still gathering speed. By 1996,
carbon emissions in developing countries were 44 percent over 1990 levels, and
71 percent over 1986 levels. Rapid economic growth, particularly in East Asia
and Latin America, is driving emissions up as growing numbers of people are
able to afford home appliances, motorcycles, cars and other energy-intensive
amenities of a "modern" lifestyle. The International Energy Agency projects
that without additional policy initiatives, global carbon emissions from fossil
fuels will exceed 1990 levels by 17 percent in 2000 and by 40 percent in 2010,
reaching 9 billion tons per year.
The lead-up to Kyoto saw angry finger-pointing between industrial and developing
countries over the division of responsibilities agreed to under the climate
convention. But such conflicts pale in comparison to the common interests and
benefits of cooperating to slow global warming. John Holdren of Harvard University
likens the energy economy to a supertanker headed at full speed for a reef,
asserting that: "We all need to steer cooperatively, not argue who's at the
wheel."
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